Voice 'no' campaign drills in on Queensland, while camps tussle over 'struggle' to attract younger voters

The Australian government and the Australian Electoral Commission are spending even bigger sums on Facebook and Instagram as they urge voters to "be ready" to engage with the referendum "conversation". In the AEC's case, it is a request to enrol or update details.

The non-traditional media push, regarded as "massively" important by the "no" camp, comes as the latest Newspoll shows support for the Voice has dropped to just 46 per cent, with a further 11 per cent undecided on how they will vote in the likely October referendum.

"We've seen in the last couple of elections, and also in America as well, in Britain and other places where you got this social media, this non-traditional media, has a lot of influence on people, especially young people," prominent "no" advocate Warren Mundine told The Canberra Times.

"So they're important things for us to work on and get right. Look, it's going to be massive. So our concentration is in that area."

The referendum-establishing constitutional alteration legislation is expected to pass the Senate this month, while the popular vote is widely tipped to take place around October. Amid disinformation and misinformation concerns, campaigning is expected to take off from late June.

This masthead has analysed official paid "yes" and "no" campaign ads on Meta platforms as they seek to win over undecided voters and lift support. It is acknowledged there is also official Voice campaigning on traditional media and unofficial Voice campaigning on social media, including often contentious or non-factual meme sharing.

The current standout, according to Meta's Ad Library, is that the official "yes" camp, Yes23, is now outspending the official "no" opposition, Fair Australia. Meanwhile, the Australian government has jumped to the top of the table, spending thousands of dollars on a video post in 17 languages to encourage voters to "be ready" by visiting an official government Voice website.

"Conversations with everyday Australians will be key to the success of this referendum," a Yes 23 campaign spokesperson said. "Community engagement will take many forms, whether that be face-to-face discussions at community forums or providing information to people online and through social media."

On Facebook and Instagram, the Yes23 campaign alliance - which is listed as a "non-profit organisation" - is the sixth top advertiser over the past week, spending $22,277 on 77 ads, and the 12th over the past 30 days spending $42,069 on 127 ads. It has spent more than $4000 in the past day alone on the ads.

Fair Australia - which is listed as a "political organisation" and is run by conservative lobby group Advance - is the 17th top advertiser over the past week, spending $6700 on 17 ads, and is the 11th top advertiser over the past 30 days spending $44,444 on 31 ads. It has spent $1030 in the past day.

"They have more money than the Bank of England at the moment. We don't have as much. We still don't have DGR [deductible gift recipient] status," Mr Mundine said.

READ MORE

DGR status encourages fundraising by allowing donations of more than $2 to be tax-deductible. The hold-up is putting a pause on "promises of money" according to Mr Mundine, although he did not appear too worried.

"Look at the polling. The more difficult they make it for us, the more we seem to get better polling," he said.

To pass a referendum in Australia, the double whammy of a majority plus a majority of states is needed.

The "no" campaign's main task is to pick up three states. It is targeting the states it believes it can win: Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. There is now confidence emerging about a majority of people as well.

The "yes" side needs to hold at least four states.

The "no" side has an obvious focus on Queensland and West Australian voters while the "yes" side appears to firm up support in the larger states NSW and Victoria.

"We're focused on reaching all Australians with our positive message about why constitutional recognition is important and how it will deliver practical outcomes for Indigenous people by giving them a say on matters that affect them," a Yes23 spokesperson said.

The "yes" ads are positive and focus on the message of unity and belonging. They have the highest audiences in the largest states. They are appealing to a younger audience.

The "no" ads are negative in nature, but constrained in imagery and message. There are some smiling faces and Indigenous people are used as spokespeople like Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, Mr Mundine and Cheron Long.

Mr Mundine insists they are factual and are "not causing division". Last month, the "no" campaign had to delete the image and quote of an Indigenous man who was incorrectly claimed as the grandson of land rights activist Vincent Lingiari.

"I do go to bed every night thinking about how this campaign can be very easily hijacked," Mr Mundine said.

Some of the "no" ads are just run in Queensland, or are explicitly targeted at Queensland audiences. Especially older people. The "no" ads have a much higher West Australian audience than "yes" ads.

The Voice Newspoll found younger voters, and the city-based, university educated, are more likely to support the proposition.

"We are struggling. I think the word is struggling [to get young people]. We admit that," Mr Mundine said.

"We have a goal here to treat them as sensible, intelligent kids and have that conversation with them and then go from there."

The "yes" ads running with sporting code endorsement are seen by younger people and by the states where that code is more popular. The AFL ads have a larger Victorian set of eyes on them, but the West Coast Eagles' endorsement was seen mostly by Victorians with a large WA audience.

Slightly more women than men see the AFL Voice ads, except for Collingwood, where young men are the big audience.

The ACT Brumbies endorsement ad is popular with young men in NSW and the ACT.

The special minister of state Don Farrell recently told the National Press Club he thought young people would swing the vote in favour of the Voice becoming a reality.